Now that Nancy Pelosi is ditching Visa shares and with key bipartisan legislation moving across the House, Chamath Palihapitiya’s short call may end up coming to an end.

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. has a disclosure and ethics policy.

Never doubt Nancy Pelosi’s stock-picking skills. This golden rule of investing should be taught in contemporary America as a basic principle in business schools. After all, the current Speaker of the House still displays a unique ability to time her stock trades — all done through her husband, Paul Pelosi, of course — in anticipation of major legislation the House must consider under her auspices. .

The above tweet outlines Nancy Pelosi’s visa moves in chronological order. Until recently, its liquidation of Visa shares was seen as an aberration rather than a meaningful attempt at market timing. After all, with a recession looming, and consumers maxing out their credit cards, companies like Visa and Mastercard are cashing in on this busy business.

However, it is only recently that major bipartisan legislation has begun to attract significant attention. The Credit Card Competition Act of 2022 was introduced back in July by Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Roger Marshall, MD (R-KS). Representatives Peter Welch (D-VT) and Lance Gooden (R-TX) introduced a companion copy of this bipartisan legislation in September. The bill aims to break up the Mastercard-Visa duopoly by requiring major banks to “allow electronic credit transactions to be processed on at least two unaffiliated networks, at least one of which must be outside the Visa-Mastercard duopoly.” For obvious reasons, if this legislation becomes law, the negative effects of Visa and Mastercard stocks cannot be underestimated.

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Interestingly, Nancy Pelosi sold a large portion of her stake in Visa in June, before introducing this bipartisan legislation in the Senate in July. As part of the process, Pelosi sold 10,000 shares of Visa stock, making between $1 million and $5 million in the process.


Then, earlier in November, Nancy Pelosi embarked on another major windfall after introducing the House version of that legislation in September. In this case, Pelosis liquidated 20,000 shares of Visa stock, netting again between $1 million and $5 million.

In all, using market-price-based interpolation, Nancy Pelosi is estimated to have made about $7 million by dumping about 35,000 Visa shares since 2020. However, Pelosi still holds a significant portion of Visa shares, including about 80,000 Shares were acquired at $11 per share pre-IPO, according to Twitter account scheduler Nancy Pelosi stock tracker.

As Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi wields significant power over when and how a particular bill will be brought to the floor. Because of this, her visa deals garnered a lot of attention.

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya had issued a controversial short call on Visa and Mastercard near the end of 2021, stating during an episode of the All-In Podcast:

“The biggest loss in my business in 2022 is Visa, MasterCard, traditional payment bars and the entire ecosystem around them.”

He has gone on to note:

“Be short on these companies and basically anyone living off this 2 or 3% (transaction) tax, and be long and well thought out, Web3 crypto projects that are rebuilding the payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way.”

Of course, just like his SPACs, Palihapitiya’s bullish view on “Web3 crypto projects” has been completely ripped off during the current bear market. However, his downward call for Mastercard and Visa may end up being right if the bipartisan credit card competition bill ends up being a reality in 2023. After all, the legislative agenda for the current calendar year is coming to an end.

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Even without considering the nuances of this bill, if Nancy Pelosi is dumping Visa stock now, the stock bulls should pay attention, given her impeccable skills at market timing.

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