Global DRAM prices will drop as much as 18% this month and bottom out by Q1 2023

Industry insiders see a decrease in the cost of DRAM, saying that the price of memory will drop significantly between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of next year. Specialists state that we will see a cost adjustment of between 13 and 18 percent.

DRAM is confirmed to decline by up to 18% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2022

Three months ago, Trendforce estimated that the cost of DRAM on a global scale would drop due to increased inflation affecting the market for consumers. However, the organization has stated that we should expect a 13-18% reduction in cost and an additional three to eight percent after that. It is uncertain if this is still true, but with DDR5 adoption becoming the standard, consumer DRAM will continue to be in demand as well. We should not only expect a decrease in the cost of memory, but also in memory shipments.

Server memory is hardest hit, down nearly eighteen percent, even as demand for server DRAM has increased over the past year, outpacing the DRAM used in mobile technology, such as tablets, laptops, and smartphones.

Due to macroeconomic factors and supply chain constraints, we have seen customer inventory adjustments expand. As a result, our forecast for segment demand growth in the CY22 industry on DRAM and NAND has softened since our June 30, 2022 earnings call, and we anticipate a challenging market environment in Q4 FY2022 and Q1 FY2023. Q4 revenue may come in Fiscal 2022 is at or below the lower end of the revenue guidance range presented in our June 30 earnings call.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, bit shipments are expected to decline sequentially with the prior quarter, and we expect significant sequential declines in revenue and margins. […] To address the near-term environment, today we’re announcing new Wafer Equipment (WFE) capital reductions for fiscal year 2023, in addition to the WFE Capex reductions discussed on our June 30 earnings call. We now expect total capex for fiscal year 2023 to decline significantly versus fiscal year 2022.

– From Micron’s file with the SEC.

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Insiders see hope, but it’s still several years away. The expected year for the growth rate of DRAM is 2026, with analysts estimating demand for server memory to reach twenty-four percent.

News source: IT Home via TechWeb

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